SoccerAmerica - Concacaf power rankings: Panama is surprise 06/15/2012

The first of three double-dates got the Concacaf World Cup semifinal round underway, and early results indicate that at least two of the three groups -- from which six teams will advance to the Hexagonal -- could go down to the final day of qualifying in October.

Mexico, not surprisingly, and Panama, somewhat surprisingly, were the only teams to take maximum points from their first two group games.

Panama’s 2-0 defeat of Honduras in San Pedro Sula, on goals by Blas Perez 16 minutes apart in the second half, blew apart the prognostications in Group C. Antigua & Barbuda caused a mini-sensation in Group A by tying Jamaica, 0-0, at home after losing to the USA, 3-1, in Tampa.

El Salvador jarred Costa Rica’s start by rallying for a 2-2 tie and despite losing its home opener to Mexico, 2-1, looks like a serious challenger to the Ticos’ Hexagonal hopes.

Here’s a rundown of how the 12 semifinal-round teams stack up after two games played, with the team’s record in parentheses followed by goals scored/goals conceded:

1. MEXICO (2-0-0) 5/2. The Mexicans looked a bit disjointed Tuesday even though they got a late goal from Hector Moreno to beat El Salvador, 2-1, in a very tense match. There shouldn’t be any nervous moments through this phase or the next, but so hysterical are the fans and press that just about anything might happen. Coach Jose Manuel De La Torre and his players triggered outrage by scoring only three times to beat Guyana in the opener, 3-1. So it goes south of the border.

2. PANAMA (2-0-0) 3/0. FC Dallas striker Blas Perez is blossoming into the type of scorer a team can ride through a tough qualifying campaign. He scored both goals in a stunning 2-0 defeat of Honduras in San Pedro Sula that gave the Canaleros the advantage in Group C, and they managed to retain that slot by beating Cuba, 1-0. The momentum built by Coach Julio Dely Valdes when Panama beat the USA in the Gold Cup last year is picking up steam.

3. USA (1-0-1) 4/2. The Americans were disappointed to concede a late goal in Guatemala City that produced the final score of 1-1 on Tuesday. The return of Fabian Johnson, who missed the 3-1 defeat of Antigua & Barbuda because of injury, eased concerns that the left-back spot might revert to its troublesome ways but the attack -- aside from Clint Dempsey -- sputtered.

4. JAMAICA (1-0-1) 2/1. The Jamaicans held serve at “The Office” in Kingston to down Guatemala, 2-1, but were unable to break through Antigua & Barbuda and settled for a goalless point away. Coach Theodore Whitmore started four MLS players and managing their minutes in September -- when the Jamaicans play home-and-away with the USA -- will be a critical factor. Ryan Johnson (Toronto FC) and Dane Richards (Red Bulls) didn’t finish the second match.

5. CANADA (1-0-1) 1/0. A encouraging 1-0 win last Friday in Havana -- the same result attained by the USA at the same venue four years ago -- didn’t lead to better things for Canada’s home opener: it tied Honduras, 0-0, Tuesday at BMO Field. Coach Stephen Hart also missed out on Jonathan de Guzman; the brother of Toronto FC midfielder Julian de Guzman has decided to play for the Netherlands rather than Canada.

6. COSTA RICA (1-0-1) 6/2. Seldom has a mark of four points from two matches been more deceiving. The Ticos blew a 2-0 lead at home and ended up tied, 2-2, with El Salvador, and they pounded four goals past feeble Guyana on the road. RSL striker Alvaro Saborio scored four goals in the two matches but the defensive glitches exposed by El Salvador, whether caused by complacency or not, need to be addressed.

7. EL SALVADOR (0-1-1) 3/4. Though winless, the Salvadorans started off by rallying from two goals down to tie Costa Rica, 2-2, in San Jose, and battled Mexico into the final minutes before losing, 2-1. Alfredo Pacheco’s free kick that tied up Mexico, 1-1, gives them another threat along with Osael Romero and a few others. The defense needs some shoring up but El Salvador is clearly the upset special of this semifinal phase.

8. GUATEMALA (0-1-1) 2/3. A few observers were surprised when Chicago midfielder Marco Pappa didn’t start against the USA, and his free-kick goal off the bench in the 83rd minute rescued a 1-1 tie that keeps the Chapines in the hunt for a Hexagonal place. In a 2-1 loss to Jamaica Dwight Pezzarossi, another sub, scored in stoppage time. Changes in the starting lineup would seem to be in order.

9. HONDURAS (0-1-1) 0/2. A disastrous 2-0 home loss to Panama last week dropped the Catrachos temporarily into last place in Group B, and though they came back Tuesday to grab a point in Toronto, and have yet to play Cuba home and away, they are in real danger of missing out on a Hexagonal place. The Oct. 12 match in Panama, though nearly four months away, is already fixated in the minds of Honduran fans.

10. ANTIGUA & BARBUDA (0-1-1) 1/3. The Benna Boys got their first point by stymieing Jamaica, 0-0, at home, and could certainly complicate the math by doing the same to Guatemala and/or the USA. Peter Byers reminded everyone what the Earthquakes saw in him three years ago by pouncing on a mistake to score a goal against the USA that might prompt a followup offer from MLS.

11. CUBA (0-2-0) 0/2. Two respectable showings have produced a pair of 1-0 defeats (at home against Canada, and at Panama). If Cuba can take even a point off Honduras, which it plays home and away in September, the group will get very tricky.

12. GUYANA (0-2-0) 1/7. The Golden Jaguars' only goal was an own goal by Mexico, scored after an own goal of their own, which is probably how the rest of the semifinal round will play out.

7 comments

Luis Arreola

commented on: June 15, 2012 at 9:29 a.m.

So Ridge, now you get you're own column to sputter more nonsense? Who in their right mind would place Canada and Jamaica over El Salvador and Costa Rica ? If you only go by these immediate results do you think Jamaica or Canada would go kill Guyana by 4 goals at their home or how about get a tie in Costa Rica or play Mexico to the last minutes of the game? These rankings prove once again how biased and limited you're soccer knowledge truly is. Why do you write so many columns on Euros but can't do one on Mexico beating Brazil? I think I will start my own FUTBOL, LAS AMERICAS A DIARIO.

Luis Arreola

commented on: June 15, 2012 at 9:33 a.m.

Wouldn't Guatemala deserve a higher ranking since it tied USA than lets say Canada who tied at home to a supposedly lesser opponent? Ridge you really suck.

Carl Walther

commented on: June 15, 2012 at 11:34 a.m.

"got a late goal from Hector Moreno to beat El Salvador, 2-1, in a very tense match." By "tense match," are you referring to the fact that El Sal played as dirty as they could, without being red carded?

Ric Fonseca

commented on: June 15, 2012 at 12:48 p.m.

Senores: First I agree with Luis, and agree even more with Carl's comments re: El Salvador. Second, your Ridge, myopic view, of soccer knowledge is astounding as it is shortsighted! Living in L.A. I was never so disappointed at ES's overly aggressive, and yes, dirty tactics and overly dramatic embellished flopping, and their fans being as rude as they could get (e.g. showering the players with water bottles, cups of liquid, etc., while taking a CK) is curiously not mentioned by the author. And to say that Mexico "looked a bit disjointed..." is indeed very over the top, and to place Canada and Jamaica higher in this ranking nonsense, defies soccer knowledgeable logic. So come, come, Mr. Ragin' Ridge Mahoney, please put on a real pair of soccer glasses to correct your soccer myopia!

David Crowther

commented on: June 15, 2012 at 12:58 p.m.

I also think you’ve ranked Jamaica, and Canada (in particular) too high. There's something strange about having your 5th place team not being able to beat your 9th place team at home? I also wonder if Antigua is really much better than Guyana. They both did about equally well on the road against the big boys and while Antigua's home result was much better, this may have been primarily because the Ticos figured out that Guyana's primary weakness is defending against crosses (something Mexico did not try to take advantage of). I’m interested to see how ES does against them, because ES doesn't have a Saborio who can fight off those big Guyanan defenders to get to those crosses.

David Crowther

commented on: June 15, 2012 at 1:17 p.m.

As for the Tico's defensive woes. I think they took a major positive step by replacing veteran Umaña (the primary goat in the ES game) with Gonzalez in this last game. There is a reason why Chivas USA let Umaña go, while Gonzalez is coming off his best season yet with Alajuela and has earned a transferto Europe. Even then, their defense is going to continue to be their weak spot as long as their only experienced player is the NYRB’s Roy Miller (playing out of position in the middle). On the other hand, the Tico’s have what could potentially become the best attack in Concacaf with Saborio up front, supported by what looks to soon be an all EPL trio of Arsenal’s young Joel Campbell on the right, Fulham’s Bryan Ruiz in the middle behind Sabo and Man U transfer target Bryan Oviedo on the left (though nominally a left-back, Oviedo was very successful as a winger for Copenhagen much of last season and tends to assume that role for the Ticos when they attack). Between them, they already have 6 goals and 4 assists – and that’s with Ruiz out injured. I’d expect CR to be involved in a lot of high scoring games.

Giovanni Alfaro

commented on: June 15, 2012 at 8:09 p.m.

This qualifying round has become very close. My country, El Salvador, unfairly and unjustly allowed the second goal in the last game thanks to a poor main referee. He shouln't be allowed to referee another official qualifier.

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