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France, England and Ukraine in the hunt
by Samuel Charles, June 15th, 2012 7:51PM

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[EURO 2012 GROUP D OUTLOOK] France, England and Ukraine control their own destiny. All three can win the group. Sweden was the second team eliminated at Euro 2012, following Ireland's ouster. To figure out how the remaining advance when Group D play concludes on Tuesday...

France plays Sweden, and England faces Ukraine, both games start at 2:45pm ET.
 
FRANCE (4 points; +2 goal difference)
Will advance if …
* It beats or ties Sweden on Tuesday.
* It ties Sweden and England ties or loses to Ukraine.
* It loses to Sweden and Ukraine beats England.
Will be eliminated if …
* It loses to Sweden and England loses to Ukraine.
 
ENGLAND (4 pts; +1)
Will advance if …
* It beats or ties Ukraine.
Will be eliminated if …
* It loses to Ukraine and France beats or ties Sweden.
 
UKRAINE (3 pts; -1)
Will advance if …
* It beats England
Will be eliminated if …
* It loses or ties with England.
 
SWEDEN (0 pts; -2)
Already eliminated.
 
Here are a couple notes and scenarios not covered above:
 
* France wins the group if it ties Sweden and England ties Ukraine.
 
* France wins the group if it beats Sweden. (Unless all of Example A happens)
 
* England wins the group if it beats Ukraine and Sweden ties France. England wins the group if it ties Ukraine and France loses to Sweden.
 
* Ukraine wins the group if they beat England and Sweden beats or ties France.
 
*France can advance if it loses to Sweden and England loses if England loses by one goal and France by two if France scores more goals than England.
 
Example A
* England wins the group if it beats Ukraine AND France beats Sweden AND England wins by two goals AND France wins by
one UNLESS France scores at least two more goals than England
 
* Finally, if France or England can’t be separated, England will be placed above France due to a higher UEFA national team coefficient. This happens if England beats Ukraine 2-0 and France beats Sweden 3-2, or if Ukraine beats England 1-0 and Sweden beats France 3-1.
 
Got All That?
 
(For more on Euro 2012's unique tiebreaking, read "Euro group tiebreakers differ from World Cup" HERE.)



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