"Having every team field a full reserve team would be ideal, but I don't know if it would be practical," says Schmid, pondering ways MLS teams can keep more players to increase
the odds of churning out good ones. "It's a big issue and now you have more and more teams from more and more countries looking at U.S. players. There's a lot of clubs overseas with resources that
can invest $100,000 on a player who's 17 or 18 or 19 and it's not a big investment for them. More teams are willing to do that, so MLS has a problem of how to get those players or not lose
"Sometimes a player goes somewhere and the competition isn't as good as MLS but the compensation's better."
Most MLS teams have yet to assemble the coaches and support staff needed to properly manage an 18-man first team, and the mandatory U15/16 and U17/18 Academy programs. In past seasons the regular roster and 10 developmental slots often stretched teams to the limit while failing to fulfill the Reserve Division's competitive objectives of accelerating player development.
Going all-in with enough players, coaches and support staff to maintain a full and separate reserve roster is a staggering financial and logistical commitment. MLS is headed the other way in a contracting economy, trimming expenses by cutting players by whatever means.
With fewer roster spots, the need for a Supplemental Draft is nearly nil, since teams have expanded opportunities - 10 as compared to six in past seasons - for discovery players.
The tighter purse strings will mean players who can't find jobs overseas or in the USL clamoring to attend MLS training sessions as freelance trialists.
Teams will have to be more creative, at least until the financial situation improves to the point MLS can set up a feeder system, by which academy products can compete for spots on the reserve team, and those players drive for first-team jobs.
"At the end of the day, it costs money," says Arena. "Player development is an expense. If you do it right, it eventually generates revenue. I had a kid in New York that we decided to use at 17 who brought a lot of money into the league, and that's Jozy Altidore. You don't want to lose those kinds of players.
"In math there's a thing called probability. When you reduce your roster, the probability of having success decreases. We need more players in our pool to be able to develop them and hit some home runs along the way."