Spain in the driver's seat
- by Samuel Charles @SoccerIsArt, Jun 18, 2012
[EURO 2012 GROUP C OUTLOOK] Croatia plays Spain, and Italy faces Ireland on Monday at 2:45 pm ET. Ireland has no chance to advance. To figure out how the
remaining advance when Group C play concludes on Monday ...
SPAIN (4 points; +4 goal difference)
Will advance if …
* It beats or ties Croatia on
Monday.
* It loses and Ireland beats or ties Italy.
Will be eliminated if …
* It loses and Italy wins.
CROATIA (4 pts; +2)
Will advance if …
* It beats Spain.
* It ties Spain and Ireland beats or ties Italy.
Will be eliminated if …
* It loses to Spain and Italy beats
Ireland.
ITALY (2 pts; 0)
Will advance if …
* It beats Ireland and Spain vs. Croatia produces a winner.
Will be eliminated if
…
* It loses or ties with Ireland.
* If Spain and Croatia tie, 2-2
IRELAND (0 pts; -6)
Already eliminated.
Here are a
couple notes and scenarios not covered above:
* Spain wins the group by beating Croatia. Spain wins the group with a tie, unless it's scoreless and Italy beats Ireland.
* A tie between Spain and Croatia, and a win by Italy will see Spain advance. These results will see Croatia or Italy advance depending upon the scores.
(For more
on Euro 2012's unique tiebreaking, read "Euro group tiebreakers differ from World Cup" HERE.)
Please do not make the same mistake that the ESPN TV commentators make. It is not just about advancing to the quarterfinals. It is about advancing and getting the slot you wish, i.e. whether one's team finishes top or second in the group. It is a bit more dicey here than it was for the Germans. The Germans (in group B) had all the advantage of seeing that they'd face Greece if they won the group outright. And that is what Joggi Loew pounded into them -- YOU WILL WIN! And it "buys" that extra rest day that the second place finisher, Portugual, does not have versus the Czechs. Believe me, Joggi Loew is smiling like the Cheshire Cat. It is not that the Greeks are pushovers, no. But Loew now has Gdansk as the quarterfinal venue, an extra rest day, and an overall significantly weaker opponent than the Czechs. Germany is in the driver seat for the semi-final in Warsaw (also what the Germans DEFINITELY WANTED -- as a superior venue for many reasons to the Donezk venue). Look for the English and French to also do this jockeying once they see how Group C finishes.