If World Cup predictions are anything to go by, then it seems as if host country Brazil has already won this one. In a report on World Cup predictions using data and modeling, the AFP notes that investment banks, physicists, and bookmakers are all bullish on Brazil bringing the world’s biggest sporting prize home this summer.
In a research report, Goldman Sachs claimed: "The most striking aspect of our model is how heavily it favors Brazil to win the World Cup.” The bank’s study relied on six parameters to determine Brazil’s ease of victory, including the Elo ranking of individual country's football success, goals scored and conceded in recent matches, past World Cup results and the advantage of the tournament venue. Goldman also said that Germany and Spain would be the losing semi-finalists.
Meanwhile, Italian bank Unicredit predicted South American domination with Uruguay also reaching the semi-finals and only Germany from Europe. It used FIFA's world ranking, home country and continent advantage, number of years as a FIFA member, the number of appearances in semi-finals of the under 17 and under 20 world championships and results from the last World Cup. "The data say it all," proclaimed the bank, which highlighted Brazil's heat and humidity, better record and home advantage.
Even renowned physicist Stephen Hawking says, "You would be a fool to overlook Brazil."
Host nations have reached the semifinals in 12 of the past 19 World Cups. They have won six.