Commentary
MLS home teams are winning at a near-record pace
- by Ridge Mahoney @ridgemax, Sep 29, 2015
(@ridgemax)
With a month to go in the 20th MLS season, home teams are winning at the highest percentage since the league increased its per-team schedule to 34 games.
Through the 304 games played as of Sunday, home teams have won 53.3 percent of them, the highest figure in the 34-game era since a 51.7 percent mark posted in 2012. That jump followed a very low mark of 43.5 percent of home victories in 2011, when the addition of Portland and Vancouver increased league membership to 18 teams and upped the per-game schedule to 34 games.
MLS Winning Percentages, Home & Away:
2015: 304 games. Home wins: 162 (53.3 percent). Away wins: 74. (24.3 percent).
2014: 323 games. Home wins: 156 (48.3 percent). Away wins: 78. (24.1 percent).
2013: 323 games. Home wins: 164 (50.1 percent). Away wins: 77. (23.8 percent).
2012: 323 games. Home wins: 167 (51.7 percent). Away wins: 79. (24.5 percent).
2011: 306 games. Home wins: 133 (43.5 percent). Away wins: 67. (21.9 percent).
Home teams are winning this season at a clip by which the total number of home wins in a 34-game season will probably be surpassed this week, with several more weeks of regular-season matches to be played. The 2015 schedule is the largest in league history, with 340 games to be played by the 20 teams.
This year’s total of home wins has already topped that of last year, when road teams won exactly half as many games, 78, as did home teams (156). That same dynamic was present in 2011, with road wins (67) just about half of the home total (133).
So far in 2015, away teams have won 74 games, only 45.7 percent of the total posted by home teams. That would also be the lowest such mark since 2011.
Since MLS dropped the shootout and allowed tied games to stand prior to the 2000 season, the highest win percentage recorded by home teams is 55.0 percent in 2002, when they won 77 of 140 games. The first three post-shootout seasons produced several of the strongest marks posted by home teams in league history. The 2000, 2001 and 2002 seasons all yielded win percentages of at least 50 percent, and since then most seasons have recorded home win percentages in the high 40s, with the exception of 2008.
MLS Winning Percentages, Home:
2010: 240 games. Home wins: 116. (48.3 percent).
2009: 225 games. Home wins: 107 (47.6 percent).
2008: 210 games. Home wins: 106 (53.0 percent).
2007: 195 games. Home wins: 91 (46.7 percent).
2006: 192 games. Home wins: 92 (47.9 percent).
2005: 192 games. Home wins: 92 (47.9 percent).
2004: 150 games. Home wins: 72 (48.0 percent).
2003: 150 games. Home wins: 71 (47.3 percent).
2002: 140 games. Home wins: 77 (55.0 percent).
2001: 158 games. Home wins: 83 (52.5 percent).
2000: 192 games. Home wins: 105 (54.7 percent).
Embedded in the above chart is an anomaly not easily explained. In both the 2005 and 2006 seasons, home teams won 92 games, yet the totals for road wins and ties were reversed:
-- 2005: Road wins: 56. Ties: 44.
-- 2006: Road wins: 44. Ties: 56.
Weird.
The homefield advantage can also be assessed in reverse fashion: by calculating the percentage of points accrued by road teams by winning or tying away from home.
MLS Points Percentages, Away:
2015: Possible points: 912 (304 games): Road wins: 74. Ties: 68. Road points: 290 (31.8 percent).
2014: Possible points: 969 (323 games). Road wins: 78. Ties: 89. Road points: 323 (33.3 percent).
2013: Possible points: 969 (323 games). Road wins: 77. Ties: 82. Road points: 313 (32.3 percent).
2012: Possible points: 969 (323 games). Road wins: 79. Ties: 77. Road points: 314 (32.4 percent).
2011: Possible points: 918 (306 games). Road wins: 67. Ties: 106. Road points: 307 (33.4 percent).
Those road numbers are remarkably consistent, yet in several recent seasons at least one team has faltered miserably away from home. This year the Fire (0-11-5) is within one game of finishing the season winless on the road. It would thus join these stragglers of recent years:
MLS Teams, Road Futility:
2014: Montreal (0-12-5), San Jose (1-10-6).
2013: D.C. United (0-14-3), Chivas USA (1-12-4).
2012: Portland (1-12-4).
2011: Vancouver (0-12-5), Toronto FC (1-9-7), New England (1-9-7).
One home record that won’t be broken this year is the number of teams winning at least 10 games. In 2012, 11 teams hit double-digits at home. So far this year, only four teams have won at least 10, and a maximum of seven more can reach that figure.
In that same 2012 season, Houston went unbeaten (11-0-6) at its brand-new BBVA Compass Stadium after opening the season with seven road games. This year every team has lost at least one home game, with the Galaxy (12-1-3), Sporting Kansas City (9-1-5), and Revs (9-1-6) the toughest to topple on their own turf.
