UBS computer simulation puts Italy (!) as No. 12 choice to win World Cup

Who's the favorite to win the 2018 World Cup?

UBS had a team of 18 analysts and editors set out to predict the World Cup champion, and they ran a computer simulation of the tournament 10,000 times, publishing the results as part of a 17-page research brief for the bank's investors.



The likely winners, in order, are Germany, Brazil and Spain, all good choices. You might quibble with England at No. 4, but that's nothing like the surprise at No. 12.

Tied with host Russia with 1.6 percent chance of winning the World Cup is Italy -- which isn't in the tournament.

The Azzurri failed to qualify for the World Cup, but they are given a four times greater chance of lifting the World Cup trophy than Sweden, the team that knocked them out of the finals.

If you were wondering, the USA didn't make the UBS computer simulation.

3 comments about "UBS computer simulation puts Italy (!) as No. 12 choice to win World Cup".
  1. Bob Ashpole, May 18, 2018 at 9:36 a.m.

    People love metrics, even obviously flawed metrics when they tell them what they want to hear.

  2. s fatschel, May 18, 2018 at 2:37 p.m.

    Why does SA publish stuff like this?

  3. John Soares, May 19, 2018 at 5 a.m.

    Great results...right up there with VAR:) 

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