UCL Preview: The Six Frontrunners

The World Cup will probably always be soccer’s biggest competition, but the UEFA Champions League, which returns Tuesday, is arguably the sport’s best. No other tournament in worldsoccer beats the UCL in terms of the quality of teams and the quality of players on display, and the packaging and theme song aren’t half bad either.

As far as Off The Post is concerned,it’s this combination of the planet’s best teams (in sum, anyway) coupled with the tournament being such a grind (it starts in September and ends in late May) that makes it must-see TV forevery soccer fan in the world. After all, while the best European team over the length of a given season often comes out on top in this competition, anything can and still does happen (seeLiverpool’s win in 2005 or Chelsea’s in 2012).

Thanks in part to the increased investment of multi billionaires in Europe’s biggest clubs, the field of possible UCL winnershas grown tremendously, making picking a winner in September harder than ever. Yet, we will try, anyhow. 

Judging by their transfer activity and respective starts to the season, OTPreckons that six teams should be considered the favorites for this year’s UCL (in no particular order): reigning European champ Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich, ParisSaint-Germain and Manchester City.

Barcelona, which won this competition relatively handily barely three months ago, has two big things going against it heading into the 2015-16 UCL: one, itis incredibly difficult to repeat as winner of this competition — in fact, no team has accomplished the feat since the European Cup became the UCL in 1992 — and two, the club’s transfer banhas meant that its squad is thinner than last year.

The latter in particular could be a major strike against the club’s ability to retain the title. Barca lost four rotation playersduring the summer — Xavi, Martin Montoya, Pedro and Alex Song — and signed two new ones, Arda Turan and Aleix Vidal, who will not be able to play in the groupstage at all. It is a thin squad, which means that tiredness and/or key injuries could really hamper the club’s success. Keeping the likes of Ivan Rakitic, Sergio Busquets and each of itsfront three healthy will be really important — particularly in the group stage, which is not necessarily straightforward with both Bayer Leverkusen and AS Roma stronger than last season. While fewreally expect the reigning champ to struggle in the group stage, look for Barca to strengthen in January because it will need a bigger squad to win the competition again.

One team that willwant revenge against Barca for the way it lost last season is Bayern Munich. The German champion was beaten badly by Barca’s front three in the semifinal and coach Pep Guardiola, whofamously coached the Blaugrana to two UCL titles, will be anxious to make his final season in charge of the Bavarian giant a winning one. Make no mistake about it: Bayern has improved in theoff-season: the additions of Arturo Vidal and Douglas Costa in particular have already paid dividends, but the acquisition of Kingsley Coman from Juventus could also be important,as Bayern looks thin in the striker department with just Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Mueller, although they are both off to a great start so far this season.

Without question,Real Madrid has an excellent squad, one very capable of capturing a record 11th UCL title. The biggest question mark for this team in each of the competitions it will try to win this season is how thesquad adapts to its new coach, Rafael Benitez. Early signs were that the Spaniard and Portuguese star Cristiano Ronaldo do not see eye-to-eye, but then again, Ronaldo just put five pastEspanyol — and most of these were glorious team goals. Goalkeeping could be a question mark after the club narrowly missed out on signing David De Gea, its No. 1 transfer target fromManchester United over the summer. It will be important for Costa Rican keeper Keylor Navas to hit top form.

Like Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain is another team that was alreadysolid but whose additions make it that much better. Former Man United winger Angel Di Maria is an excellent signing, as is fullback Leyvin Kurzawa from AS Monaco, and both acquisitionswere in areas of need for the reigning French champ. However, though PSG is having a solid start to life in Ligue 1, history shows that the tournament’s eventual winner almost always benefitsfrom having a tight contest in its domestic league, as well. As yet, no clear rival has emerged in France for last season’s quadruple winner, which could adversely affect its UCLcampaign. 

Atletico Madrid is another solid Spanish team that had a very good summer transfer window. In Diego Simeone, the club also has an excellent coach whose teams rarely giveaway soft goals. An excellent coach plus a very good transfer window usually equals a strengthened overall squad, and should at the very least add up to a strong UCL campaign. Perhaps mostimportantly, Atleti also got a very kind group stage draw which means it should breeze into the Round of 16; no one will want to play this team from the quarterfinals onward. 

If you hadto pick one English Premier League team to possibly win the UCL this season, it has to be Manchester City. City started with a very good team and bought some excellent new players but how far thisteam goes depends on a couple of factors. One, the striking department, which consists of Sergio Aguero and Wilfried Bony, is thin, and you don’t win the UCL without a strongforward line. Keeping Aguero fit is absolutely essential to City’s success, because Bony has not yet proven to be a reliable back-up. Behind the striker, center midfield and central defense willalso be key, which means Yaya Toure and Vincent Kompany need to return to their best, while newcomer Nicolas Otamendi alongside Kompany is the key new addition.

Who willwin it all? Like anyone else, OTP has no idea, but if he had to pick one standout from this excellent collection of clubs, it would have to be Bayern. The German champ has an excellent coach, isbetter than last season and rival Borussia Dortmund has shown early signs that we may actually have a title race in Germany, which should in turn help Bayern’s UCL prospects.